LiveSimulationsv0 prototype

Re-forecast under any hypothesis

Pose a scenario — geopolitical shock, natural disaster, succession event, market shift. The brief recomputes typology probabilities, branch weights, and indicator readings, and the analyst tells you why. Stack scenarios to compound them; interrogate any adjustment to push on the reasoning.

Biberman
Lanin
Schwartz

Typology · probability mass

  • Elite-Capturedflat

    27%

  • State-Cooptedflat

    62%

  • Repressedflat

    8%

  • Independentflat

    3%

Pose a scenario

⌘/Ctrl + Enter to submit · scenarios stack

Scenario branches · weights

Which path the brief assigns most weight to

  • Betrayal cascade → IRGC analogue45%flat
  • Baseline: continued elite capture22%flat
  • Regional fragmentation17%flat
  • Weimar analogue (low probability)9%flat
  • Chinese firewall import → repressed7%flat

Indicators · post-scenario

  • Telegram → Max migration

    43.0 % on Max

  • Asset-seizure recipients (90d)

    5.0 transfers / wk

  • LDPR — veteran framing density

    18.0 % rhetoric density

  • Veteran-adjacent regional unrest

    3.0 incidents / wk

  • Milblogger sentiment — anti-command

    31.0 % anti-command

  • VTB / Sberbank veteran-program loans

    114.0 indexed

  • Crypto outflows & RUB-stablecoin rails

    93.0 $bn / mo

  • International isolation depth

    80.0 % index

v0.1 · simulations · scenarios stack and compound