A living instrumentation of the comparative-political framework developed in Russian Homecoming and Iran Case Comparison. Each indicator is monitored continuously; probability mass across the four veteran-network types updates as evidence lands.
01 — Master state variable
Trajectory updates as agents ingest new evidence
Regime-aligned elites capture the command level; networks lose autonomy, status quo preserved.
If realized: Most likely alternate. Distinct from co-optation: the regime undermines network autonomy rather than empowering it. Continuity of the existing allocation of resources, systematically biased toward stability rather than disruption.
Parallel armed organization tied to regime survival; rents + coercive role.
If realized: IRGC-style hybrid of coercion, rents, and ideology. Structurally incentivized to produce instability — expanded private security, sabotage-as-a-service, proliferation risk, persistent border violations, money laundering and sanctions evasion — fragmenting Russia's security architecture and complicating control of a nuclear-armed state.
Networks fragmented by selective benefits, suppression, ideological messaging.
If realized: Veterans politically inert, but at the cost of further economic degradation and near-total dependence on Chinese assistance. Latent organizational capacity that can re-emerge after regime shocks.
Cohesive, autonomous, well-connected veteran organizations.
If realized: Class-wide claims succeed. Greater economic equality and a gradual strengthening of the rule of law within Russia. Low coercive role.
02 — Live indicators
Sparklines update as the agent feed ingests new evidence. Click any row for the framework mapping.
03 — Comparative case
Aggregate convergence updates live; each row's score is a function of the indicators that load on it.
Weighted blend of typology mass currently consistent with the IRGC outcome (heavily on State-Coopted, partially on Elite-Captured).